* Non-oil exports fell 16.3 pct yr/yr vs forecast -7.5 pct
* Q4 GDP likely to be revised downwards - economist
SINGAPORE, Jan 17 (Reuters) - Singapore's non-oil domestic
exports fell more than expected in December, showing
manufacturing remains in the doldrums and suggesting GDP for the
fourth quarter of last year could be revised downwards.
Non-oil domestic exports (NODX) fell 16.3 percent to S$13.19
billion in December from a year earlier, much worse than the
median forecast of a 7.5 percent drop in a Reuters poll of
economists. The drop was partly due to a high year-ago base when
shipments were boosted by a surge in rig deliveries.
The decline was led by electronics, which plunged 19.1
percent last month from a year ago, accelerating from the 16.5
percent decline in November.
Exports of rigs and pharmaceuticals also fell, but these
tend to be unpredictable because of their lumpy nature.
"NODX growth for the full year was around 0.5 percent, well
outside the government's recently lowered forecast of 2-3
percent," said CIMB regional economist Song Seng Wun.
"The poor showing suggests downside risks to fourth quarter
GDP as the drag from manufacturing will be higher," he added.
Wealthy Singapore, whose trade is three times GDP, has been
hurt by flagging demand in Europe and North America hitting its
key electronics exports especially hard.
Government measures to slow the import of low-cost foreign
workers, amid a backlash from Singaporeans concerned about
stagnant wages and overcrowded buses and trains, have also
affected growth as companies struggle to find staff with
unemployment running at 1.9 percent.
Advanced estimates from the Ministry of Trade and Industry
earlier this month showed Singapore's GDP expanded by an
annualised 1.8 percent in the fourth quarter from the third
quarter after seasonal adjustments, following a 6.3 percent
contraction in July-September.
The growth is likely to be revised downwards given the weak
exports data for December, although it could be partially offset
by the stock and property markets' strong performance towards
the end of the year.
The advance estimates relies primarily on data from the
first 10 weeks of the quarter and are prone to revisions when
more detailed data is available.
For 2013, the government has forecast growth of 1-3 percent,
in line with last year's growth of 1.2 percent.
(Reporting by Kevin Lim; Editing by Shri Navaratnam)
Source: http://news.yahoo.com/1-singapore-dec-exports-fall-gdp-likely-revised-013014093--business.html
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